> — Analysis generated by Gemini 2.5 Flash on December 4, 2025 ...
Also:
> Registry Expiry Date: 2026-10-01T23:59:59.0Z
This domain will be the pop heard around the world
I mean, I got the gist it might change... but I assumed this is a flat page, made once. For the lulz. Entirely missed the relevant FAQ!
edit: I'll actually check this again to see what the robot(s) think, others have good a suggestion: more, compare sentiment beyond Gemini.
Bubble pops? The AI was right! AI works! Doubters were wrong, everybody should be throwing their money back in! That wasn't a bubble that was Future Earnings.
Bubble doesn't pop? AI fails and it's a scam & a bubble! Why are we all still pouring money into this bubble? Someone in the comments, in response, moves the goalposts on AI.
Heavy dose of /s, of course.
Are you worried about the high valuations of the big AI companies (OpenAI, Nvidia, etc)? Then sure, that will correct over time. There will likely be 1-2 big winners.
But if you're talking about AI in general... right now is the least amount of money companies will be spending on AI ever. It will only go up. This isn't crypto.
Bitcoin is at $92k.
AI companies will someday just be called companies, much like how tech companies are just companies.
(Paraphrase != endorsement.)
Sure, my BTC is up, but I can go weeks or months without interacting with a blockchain in any way, directly or indirectly.
Valuations of individual AI companies might (and will) drop, but we are currently experiencing the least amount of AI in our everyday lives that we (or our children) ever will.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
Current odds - 35% by end 2026.
Usually, well after the fact. Especially in a case like this, where most of the money is being spent by the hyperscalers, who are unlikely to outright _collapse_ or anything. There are exceptions, where a bubble popping is accompanied by a massive single-day market crash, but that's not _really_ the norm.
Put options trading.[^1]
> At what point can we verifiably say we heard a loud pop?
Definitely after the fact. Maybe months, maybe years. I have personally been following the parallels with the dot-com bubble burst, but it's impossible to time the market. Financial data is always too slow when you want it fast and too fast when you need to watch it carefully.
[^1] https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/sellingoptions.a...
Bubble =/= useless
Bubble means over-hyped