The bond market keeps the score - https://www.axios.com/2026/01/22/trump-tariffs-bond-market-f... | https://archive.today/FIvDs - January 22nd, 2026
https://www.weforum.org/podcasts/meet-the-leader/episodes/da... ("The Fed doesn't really set interest rates," JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said in Davos.)
(“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a 400 basball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” — James Carville; global bond market is ~$145 trillion)
Is there actually some strategy here? Or is it just that Trump doesn’t care because his family is getting so much richer that changes in the Dollar’s value don’t matter to them?
But are they genuinely not concerned? They have a huge advantage to lie, or else it would become a self-fulfilling prophecy. People tend to lie.
The charitable version is based on the fact that if your dollar falls then the things you export to other nations suddenly become cheaper for them. It's like natural tariffs: imports to the USA become unaffordable; exports from the USA become a bargain to other nations.
That said, he has also advocated the opposite. Here he is in 2018:
“The dollar is going to get stronger and stronger, and ultimately I want to see a strong dollar,” Trump said in an exclusive interview from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
But today's USD decline? Brutal. It almost makes me want to say, "it's happening!".
I don't know about this dollar plunge being intentional, though. This one feels more like a massive screw up caused by the administration convincing each other that Europe and the 'middle powers' are completely powerless.
I agree we're close, but we're not quite there yet. The bond market is punishing sovereign debt (Japan bond crisis), and there is evidence that billions of dollars of capital is willing to leave US treasuries to find something better. Gold and silver are up wildly; some may say overbought, but I think that only applies in the before times. This will, imho, continue as capital seeks venues of prudent economic management (which, arguably, the US, USD, and UST are no longer). The dollar lost 8% of its value last year, I expect that pace to continue, if not worsen.
https://economics.td.com/us-the-united-states-dollar-in-2025
(not investing advice, i am a rando)